Middle-class families are struggling. Inflation may have slowed, but the prices of basic goods and services have essentially doubled over the last few years. Groceries are significantly more expensive, putting a strain on families just trying to put food on the table. Gas prices continue to rise, making it harder for people to commute to work without feeling the pinch. Housing costs are skyrocketing, pushing homeownership out of reach for many and driving up rents. Healthcare premiums are climbing, and college tuition remains a financial nightmare. It’s no wonder middle-class Americans feel gaslit when they hear political leaders focus on social issues without addressing the daily struggles they face. As has become cliché, it’s always the economy. stupid.

Polling consistently shows a significant gender gap, with men leaning toward Trump and women supporting Kamala Harris. However, I believe the polls underestimate Trump’s appeal for a critical reason: the 'shaming effect.' Many Trump supporters feel judged for their views, particularly by the media. This reluctance to openly acknowledge support for Trump skews the polls and could play a decisive role in the election outcome unless there is a historic surge in female voters driven by the gender gap, especially on issues like abortion.

I’ve experienced this firsthand: several friends who plan to vote for Trump feel uncomfortable admitting it to other people knowing they will be shamed. They fear social backlash, not just political disagreement. This phenomenon isn’t limited to my personal circle. As journalist Bari Weiss has pointed out, it's much easier to find people publicly admitting they’ve switched from voting Republican to voting Democrat than to find Democrats willing to say they’ll vote for Trump. This reluctance could be masking Trump’s true level of support.

It remains unclear whether the issue of abortion will mobilize voters in overwhelming numbers. Many states have implemented restrictions, but the reality is that historically, economic concerns have taken precedence, even when social issues like abortion are on the ballot.

If a candidate successfully frames an issue, such as immigration, in economic terms, they are poised to make a lasting impression on the electorate. While people may have a variety of opinions on an open or closed border in its relation to public safety, framing the debate as pressure on social services, job markets, and housing exacerbates economic concerns already weighing heavily on the middle class. This year, illegal border crossings have reached historic highs, with the Biden administration under pressure to stem the flow.

Key concerns include:

• The effect of immigration on job competition in lower-wage sectors.
• The strain on social services, particularly in border states like Texas and Arizona.
• A majority of voters—57%—believe that immigration is a serious issue threatening national security and economic stability.

The middle class—the backbone of the American electorate—overwhelmingly prioritizes economic security. Inflation may have slowed, but the burden on middle-class households is not just a statistic—it’s their daily reality. As of October 2024:

• 53% of Americans rate the economy as their top concern heading into the election.
• Housing prices remain high, with affordable housing options limited.
• The cost of basic goods has remained elevated despite inflation control, leading many to feel that their paycheck simply doesn’t go as far as it used to.

The 2024 election will come down to whether the financial concerns of middle-class families are heard. Right now, they feel overlooked and frustrated. While social issues like abortion remain important, they pale in comparison to the real challenges facing the majority of voters.

Unless Kamala Harris can clearly address the economic struggles that middle-class families face daily—the rising cost of living, housing, healthcare, and gas—Donald Trump has a strong chance of securing victory. The economic pressures of the middle class, the 'shaming effect' among Trump supporters, and the focus on social issues that don’t address these financial realities could very well lead to a Trump win.

Ultimately, it’s the economy that will decide this election, and unless there is a dramatic shift, voters may choose the candidate who promises relief from the economic squeeze that defines their lives today.